by user Awrigh01
According to Intrade, a popular and accurate information market, Rudy Giuliani is leading John McCain in the race for the Republican nomination. For those of you that don't know what an information market, also known as a prediction market, "are speculative markets created for the purpose of making predictions. Assets are created whose final cash value is tied to a particular event (e.g., will the next US president be a Republican) or parameter (e.g., total sales next quarter). The current market prices can then be interpreted as predictions of the probability of the event or the expected value of the parameter. Other names for prediction markets include information markets, decision markets, idea futures, and virtual markets." McCain is trading at 28.1 while Rudy is trading at 33.3. The graphs don't look good for McCain either:
Graph For McCain
Graph for Rudy
Any thoughts on why Rudy is pulling ahead?