by user Tylersalt
The sequel to my previous post, Handicapping the Major Democratic Presidential Players for 2008, coming to you due to popular demand and the fact that, well, I'm bored.
3:2 -- Senator John McCain (R-AZ): Several big things are playing strongly into McCain's hands this time around. First, he's widely liked by moderates, independents, and even a fair number of Democrats. Second, he has a wealth of experience in the Senate, sponsoring any number of big-ticket pieces of legislation. Being a war hero can't hurt either, especially in times like these.
3:2 -- Fmr NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani: The most moderate of the serious candidates (most notably, Giuliani is pro-choice and pro-gay-marriage), which could hurt in a primary but possibly be a big boon in the general election. Giuliani's popularity rating has been through the roof since September 11th, 2001, when he was very much in the public eye as mayor of New York City. The biggest knock here is going to be his lack of experience on the national political stage, but his poll numbers at this point seem to imply that it isn't making much of an impact, as he is the current leader in many polls. This will most likely change later on in the campaign.
5:1 -- Fmr Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-GA): A somewhat surprising entry, the controversial former Speaker of the House from the mid-90's has said that at this point, he will only run if no other national candidate presents the same platform positions that he does. At the moment though, he only trails Giuliani and McCain in the polls, so who knows?
5:1 -- Fmr Massachussets Governor Mitt Romney: The Mormon former governor of Massachusetts already seems to be a popular choice of pundits, most notably conservative firebrand Bill O'Reilly, as well as some politicos like former House Speaker Dennis Hastert. His fundraising has been impressive, on par with and at times outstripping that of frontrunners McCain and Giuliani. Watch for him to make a push into the upper echelon as the campaign wears on.
8:1 -- Fmr Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee: Governor Huckabee has been a hot name of late, but little is known about him in the national arena. Being a Baptist minister before being Governor could help him down the line. Another possible mover and shaker.
12:1 -- Senator Chuck Hagel (R-NE): Hasn't officially joined the race as of yet, but has some grassroots support and could make some noise later on. A more conservative version of John McCain, but has raised some eye brows around the party by being a big critic of the Bush administration, especially on Iraq.
15:1 -- Fmr New York Governor George Pataki: As the "other" socially moderate candidate from New York, Pataki may find it hard to get out from under Giuliani's shadow. A savvy politician, any Republican who manages to get elected to 4 terms as governor of one of the more liberal states in the Union has to be taken seriously. Could move up later in the campaign.
18:1 -- Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX): Not a big name, but his record as a Libertarian and outspoken critic of the Bush administration could render him a wildcard.
20:1 -- Senator Sam Brownback (R-KS): Brownback is one of the most conservative players for the nomination in 2008. A darling of the Christian right, look for him to be "left behind" (it's a pun!) as I imagine both parties will run to the center after this polarizing administration leaves office.
25:1 -- Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA): Hunter, like Brownback, is probably too conservative for the Republicans this time around.
25:1 -- Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO): Tancredo is the House's leading crusader against illegal immigration, but that issue probably isn't important enough to most Americans to propel him to the nomination.
25:1 -- Fmr Secretary of HHS Tommy Thompson: Also the former governor of Wisconsin, Thompson has formed an exploratory committee to seek the Republican nomination. I don't think that he's going to be able to raise the kind of money he's going to need to really compete.
250:1 -- John Cox: A Chicago-area CPA and former head of the (heavily Democratic) Cook County Republican Party, Cox has run in two Illinois primaries and lost both times, once for the House and once for the Senate. Look for even less noise from him in 2008.