by user OK Felb OR
New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg is considering running for President as an independent. With a net worth of about $5 billion, Mayor Mike can take a $1 billion war chest into the campaign and not have to worry about seeing the poorhouse.
But with a large number of party-line voters out there, Bloomy will be a longshot, at best, to make it to the White House. So, what true effect will such a campaign have?
Four more years of GOP.
Of the top three GOP candidates -- Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, and Mitt Romney -- two (McCain and Romney) are staying afloat due to their social conservatism. According to Rassmussen Research, McCain is currently a 48-42% underdog to Barack Obama and a 48-47 dog to Hillary Clinton. The less-known Romney is also lagging, 50-41 behind Hillary and 52-37 behind Obama.
Romney's 37% versus Obama is probably a good estimate of the absolute minimum about of support the GOP candidate will get, assuming that there is no viable social conservative alternative. That is, in a three-way race between Romney/McCain, Hillary/Obama, and Bloomberg, the Romney/McCain option is looking at picking up at least 37% of the popular vote. As demonstrated by other poll results, a low-40% is not out of the question.
So what happens to the other 60%? Fiscal liberals will probably favor Hillary/Obama, while more fiscally conservative types will be more likely to help Bloomberg out. A 35-25 split is certainly a likely outcome.
- McCain or Romney: 40%
- Hillary or Obama: 35%
- Bloomberg: 25%
Result: President Romney.
The wildcard, of course, is if Giuliani wins the nomination.
In that case, though, Giuliani emerges as the conservative alternative; a social liberal who, unlike the Bloombergs and Clintons, can claim some level of "tolerance" toward his conservative opponents. And his Iraq stance, while an anathema to the majority of Americans, will probably give him the 35-40% he needs to carry the day.
For the sake of America, Mike...
Keep your money.